Selection issues, a fragile middle order and bowling casualties... the reasons behind South Africa's slump

SIMON HUGHES: Three of the bottom teams in the World Cup table were predictable from the outset. But South Africa's fall from the top table has been surprising and swift. They have not come close to winning a game

As we report on the latest Analyst podcast, this is quickly becoming a six team World Cup.

Afghanistan (no points from three games), South Africa (one from four) and Bangladesh (three from four)  have almost no chance of qualifying and Sri Lanka (four from four) will have to win four of their remaining five games to have any hope.

You’re going to need 12 points to be fairly certain of a semi-final spot. And three of Sri Lanka’s remaining matches are against India, England and Australia. 

Three of those bottom teams were predictable from the outset. But South Africa’s fall from the top table has been surprising and swift. They have not come close to winning a game.

England were far too good in their first game, they did lose by only 21 runs to Bangladesh in their second but that masks how much they were outmanoeuvred in the match, and India coasted to a six-wicket victory in their third without breaking sweat.

^{Hashim Amla has struggled for runs}

Given they were 29 for 2 in their fourth game against the West Indies, you could say they were lucky to get a point from that match when it was ruined by rain. 

What has happened to South Africa? Chiefly their selection was flawed. Its often the story with South African cricket of course, given the ‘quotas’ laid down by the board (national teams need to average 55 per cent players ‘of colour’) although they have actually removed this stipulation for the World Cup.

In fact it feels more like they are in the same position as England were four years ago, trusting some ageing, fading forces when a refresh was badly needed. 

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Hashim Amla has been in decline for some time (CricViz suggests his average against pace bowling this year in ODIs - 28 - is his lowest ever) and he looks poor in the field, David Miller and JP Duminy have distinctly ordinary records in ODIs (win percentages of 30 and 20 respectively when they face more than 20 balls in run chases) and Dale Steyn was never going to recover in time to play any matches.

He was bowling about my pace when I saw him in the nets a week ago. Chris Morris’s record is also moderate. When you factor in that two key batting spots - three and five - are occupied by young players, Aiden Markham and Rassie van der Dussen who have experienced less than 20 ODIs, there is a huge burden on Faf du Plessis, Quinton de Kock, Kagiso Rabada and Imran Tahir. These guys are carrying the team. 

^{AB de Villiers' offered to come out of retirement for the World Cup}

You feel Du Plessis’s exasperation. You can hear it in his voice when he phones experienced figures in the World Cup commentary team seeking advice. There is nothing they can really say. South Africa’s cricket has self destructed, paying leading players poorly for the last few years, allowing politics to marginalise others, prompting them to defect to county cricket and/or T20 franchise cricket.

Morne Morkel, Duanne Olivier and Kyle Abbott would have certainly kept the other nation's batsmen honest. Domestic cricket in South Africa is a shadow of what it used to be (there are now 13 first-class teams) and the much trumpeted Msanzai Super League got off the ground a year late and lacked much star quality. 

Much rumour and speculation has surrounded AB de Villiers's offer to come out of retirement for this tournament (apparently rejected by the selectors who wanted to keep faith with the young players who had taken over from him).

In truth he would not have made a significant difference. Next week will be the 20th anniversary of their famous capitulation in the World Cup semi-final against Australia.

It forged their reputation as ‘chokers.’

But in this tournament they haven’t been as good as that. They’ve barely spluttered. One more defeat and they’re dead. 

Our coverage of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019 is brought to you in association with Cricket 19, the official video game of the Ashes. Order your copy now at Amazon.co.uk