T20 Blast Permutations: Who needs what ahead of the group stage's final day

JACK BUTLER & NICK FRIEND: The Cricketer looks ahead to the final round of group stage matches, but who needs what to make it to the quarter-finals?

hosegarton190901

SOUTH GROUP 

Essex v Sussex

Where: Chelmsford

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Sussex need a win to be sure of their place in the quarter-finals as one of the best third-placed sides.

If they win and Kent are beaten by Surrey, Sussex would finish second, potentially setting up a home quarter-final should Durham beat Lancashire, who would then end on 12 points, with Sussex on 13. Sussex's net run rate is considerably better than that of Birmingham, who are second in the Central Group, aiding the Hove county's chances of a home quarter-final.

Essex have only recorded two victories in this year’s competition and will be looking for a consolation win at Chelmsford ahead of the Bob Willis Trophy final next week.

One to watch: Luke Wright has been smashing it everywhere at the top of the order - 374 runs at a strike rate of 142.74 presents a pretty healthy return from the power-hitting opener. 

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Overcast conditions but dry in Chelmsford.

Prediction: Sussex

Surrey v Kent 

Where: Kia Oval

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Surrey, who have all-but booked a home quarter final, face second-placed Kent who have also already qualified but will be looking for a win to finish in the top two of the South Group.

If Kent win, their superior net run rate to that of Lancashire would likely see them claim a home quarter-final as the best second-placed county.

One to watch: Young left-arm spinner Daniel Moriarty has taken 13 wickets so far in his maiden Blast campaign. In Surrey’s nine-wicket win over Hampshire, the 21-year-old returned figures of 2 for 19 in four overs. Expect Zak Crawley to be key for Kent, who have Sam Billings back in their ranks.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny intervals but mostly cloudy.

Prediction: Kent

lammonby180902

Somerset will almost certainly need to win to qualify for the quarter-finals

Hampshire v Middlesex

Where: Ageas Bowl

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Both sides are out of quarter-final contention after defeats in recent weeks. A depleted Hampshire side lost to Surrey by nine wickets last time out - James Vince even took the gloves in the absence of Lewis McManus. Middlesex will fancy their chances against the South Group wooden-spooners.

One to watch: Stevie Eskinazi is the Vitality Blast's top-scorer so far with 397 runs and an impressive strike-rate of 150.37. The 26-year-old will want to cash-in against a weak Hampshire attack.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny intervals and should remain dry at Southampton. 

Prediction: Middlesex

CENTRAL GROUP

Birmingham Bears v Northamptonshire

Where: Edgbaston

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Currently sitting second in their group, Birmingham Bears need to win to be certain of their place in the top two. A poor net run rate of -0.641 means that defeat will knock them out if any of Somerset, Durham or Leicestershire win.

Northamptonshire, currently fourth, will finish in the top three if they beat Birmingham Bears. Whether they qualify would then depend on other results, with Northants, Somerset, Durham, Leicestershire and Sussex then fighting it out for two spots.

One to watch: Paul Stirling has been quiet in recent weeks - an average of 27.71 has been helped by an unbeaten 80. The Irish power-hitter will be looking for a better return against Birmingham.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny spells in Birmingham throughout.

Prediction: Northamptonshire

Worcestershire v Glamorgan

Where: Blackfinch New Road

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Worcestershire and Glamorgan have both struggled throughout this competition, with Worcestershire - last year's runnners-up and champions in 2018 - likely to finish bottom of the Central Group regardless of the result of this game.

Glamorgan can mathematically still qualify, but it would take a remarkable set of results for them to progress as one of the two best third-placed sides. The Welsh county would have to win well and rely on heavy defeats for Somerset, Northants, Durham and Leicestershire.

One to watch: Timm van der Gugten has taken eleven wickets so far and a best of 3 for 17.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny spells, but mostly overcast conditions at New Road.

Prediction: Worcestershire

ackermann180901

Colin Ackermann's match-winning 67* against Nottinghamshire has kept Leicestershire in contention

Gloucestershire v Somerset 

Where: Bristol

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Gloucestershire are all-but guaranteed to finish top of their group after a run of six consecutive wins that came to an end on Friday night.

Somerset, currently third, will likely need a win if they are to scrape into the quarter-finals. Technically, they could qualify even with a defeat, given their net run rate of 0.757, but they would then need Northants, Durham and Leicestershire to lose as well.

If Somerset win, their net run rate would likely be sufficient for them to claim one of two places available for the best third-placed counties. If they win and Birmingham lose, they could even finish second in the Central Group and qualify automatically.

One to watch: Impressively, Ian Cockbain has a strike-rate of 180.64, having hit 19 sixes and 18 fours so far. The 33-year-old's unbeaten 84 against Birmingham Bears came off 35 balls. Brutal.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Mostly sunny spells with a small chance of rain. 

Prediction: Gloucestershire

NORTH GROUP

Derbyshire v Yorkshire  

Where: Emerald Headingley

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Both sides are out, but have men in form - chiefly, Joe Root, who will fancy his chances of a fourth T20 Blast fifty of the season.

One to watch: Arguably one of the most underrated T20 cricketers going is Adam Lyth, who has once again been in the white-ball runs: 297 at a strike-rate of 159.67 - another decent return for the Yorkshire opener.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny conditions means it will be batting day at Headingley. 

Prediction: Yorkshire

gartong180901-min

A win for Sussex will confirm their quarter-final place - at worst, as the best third-placed side. Should Surrey beat Kent, Sussex could finish second and confirm a home quarter-final

Nottinghamshire v Durham 

Where: Trent Bridge

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Notts are through as group winners, but lost for the first time on Friday night against Leicestershire.

They face Durham, who need a win to stand any chance of qualification. Unlikely, but not impossible. They have the second-best net run rate of the third-placed sides and have won their last four games.

Of the sides outside the top two in their groups, only Somerset have a superior net run rate to their 0.592. Given that figure, a victory over Nottinghamshire would likely see them qualify for the quarter-finals if Somerset were to lose against Gloucestershire or Sussex be defeated by Essex.

One to watch: Jake Ball has picked up 12 wickets so far at 15.41, but this Notts side is characterised by a long, hard-hitting batting line-up featuring Alex Hales, Ben Duckett, Chris Nash, Joe Clarke, Dan Christian, Tom Moores and Samit Patel.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny throughout at Trent Bridge. 

Prediction: Nottinghamshire

Lancashire v Leicestershire 

Where: Emirates Old Trafford

When: Sunday, September 20, 1pm

Lowdown: Lancashire, who have already qualified for the quarter-finals, were skittled for 83 against Durham on Friday, but will still secure a home quarter-final if they win and Kent fail to beat Surrey.

Leicestershire beat Nottinghamhire last time out to keep their own hopes alive. A week ago, the Foxes looked down and out, but now, a win against Lancashire could see them scrape into the knockout stages. Given their vastly inferior net run rate to Sussex, they need to win and hope that Durham, Northants and Somerset lose to finish as the second-best third-placed side.

One to watch: Skipper Colin Ackermann hit an unbeaten 67 against Nottinghamshire, comfortably seeing his side to a four wicket victory. A vital captain’s innings.

Tickets: Match will be played behind closed doors.

Weather: Sunny spells in between mostly overcast conditions at Old Trafford.

Prediction: Leicestershire

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