Are there hidden gems lurking in club cricket who could step up to the county game? Data analyst Dan Weston thinks so, and he believes his research can help sides search out diamonds in the rough
Michael Pepper, bottom left, is on counties' radars and has a one-summer deal with Essex
Are there hidden gems lurking in club cricket who could step up to the county game? Data analyst Dan Weston thinks so, and he believes his research can help sides search out diamonds in the rough.
Weston, the founder of Sports Analytics Advantage and a professional tennis trader, has been analysing the upper reaches of the semi-professional and amateur side of the sport in the UK in a bid to discover untapped potential.
By using historical data to give weight to performances in different leagues, depending on their quality, he believes he can predict which players may be able to make the step up comfortably to county level, and which might find it too much of a leap.
Weston’s database of club players is substantial but here he shares with The Cricketer the names of 10 individuals - five bowlers and five batsmen - who fit the bill when it comes to data.
Will we see any breaking into the county game any time soon?
If there is one batsman from this list that I’d hang my hat on being a future county player at the very least, it is Michael Pepper.
While my data suggests the East Anglian Premier League isn’t of the highest standard compared to some others, such as its Lancashire or Birmingham equivalents, it is impossible to ignore over 1,000 runs at an average of over 80 at his age - he turned 19 midway through last season.
This form led to a call-up by the Unicorns team in the Second XI trophy, where he averaged almost 50, and after strangely being released by Northants - he played for their Second XI last season - he has been given a summer contract by Essex, hitting an unbeaten Second XI Trophy century this week at over a run a ball against a Surrey attack containing Will Jacks, Stuart Meaker, Gareth Batty and Ryan Patel.
Opening batsman Nick Connolly was the only player to reach 1,000 runs in the Bradford Premier League last season, finally finishing with 1,165 runs from 13 completed innings, averaging almost 90.
This wasn’t a flash in the pan either - in 2015 he averaged in excess of 50, and around this again in 2016 - he’s a consistent run-scorer at this level and it is a surprise that a county hasn’t given him a chance.
A member of a strong Plumtree team last season including Graeme White, Sam Wood and Matt Milnes, Soames has performed consistently well over the last couple of years at this level, averaging around 50 in both 2016 and 2017.
At his age, he has plenty of upside, and played for Hampshire Second XI last season, having come through their academy, and has got some first-class experience this summer against both Sussex and Lancashire, playing for Loughborough MCCU.
Another batsman from the East Anglian Premier League, Arthurton has played for a number of counties at Second XI level, featuring for Essex, Kent and Northants in the past.
However, none seemingly were willing to take a chance on the 25 year old, and perhaps he fits the dynamic of a player who improves as he gets older - my research showed that many players released by counties in their early 20s generally appear to do so.
Arthurton has averaged in excess of 50 in the last two seasons in the East Anglian Premier League, and already has a century to his name this season at this level as well, and in addition, has also performed extremely well for Unicorns and Norfolk (in the Unicorns Knockout) in recent years.
Alex Phillips looks like another player who has improved as he reaches his mid-20s. A product of the Warwickshire system, he played second XI cricket for Somerset, Worcestershire and Warwickshire but was released by Warwickshire in 2015.
However, he’s performed superbly for Knowle & Dorridge in the Birmingham Premier League, scoring just shy of 1,000 runs and averaging over 60 in each of the last two seasons, and while his performances have perhaps been overshadowed at this club by the New Zealand international batsman George Worker, he looks good enough to be able to make an impact for a county, particularly at Division Two level, with an expected second XI average in the mid-40s.
There were a number of other batsmen at this level flagged up by my algorithm who already have county contracts, and these include Neil Brand (Neath & Glamorgan), Harry Brook (Yorkshire Academy & Yorkshire), Alex Milton (Cardiff & Worcestershire) and Calum Brodrick (Rolleston & Derbyshire).
From my research, Steve Morgan is a spin bowler, although it is unclear which varieties he specialises in.
However, what can be certain is that he specialises in taking wickets, and plenty of them. In 2016, he took 33 wickets at just over 10, while his figures last season were similarly impressive - 55 (wickets at a shade over 12. Even at this early stage of the season, Morgan has picked up wickets already in 2018, with his 18 wickets so far costing around a paltry eight runs per wicket.
In addition, Morgan’s bowling has proven very economical at this level, which could make him a viable white-ball spin option for English counties, given the propensity of English batsmen to score slower against spin.
Brother of Worcestershire bowling all-rounder Ed Barnard, the data makes it a little puzzling as to why he’s not followed the pathway of a number of players in the Birmingham league into the setup of the Midlands counties - not to mention the family connection.
In 2016, Barnard took 22 wickets for Shrewsbury in the Birmingham Premier League at a cost of just under 15, backing this up with 54 at just under 13 in 2017. Already this season, he’s also added 15 at just over 10, making this data compare favourably to that of Ryan Sidebottom, who has already made such an impression at Warwickshire following a spell at Berkswell in the Birmingham League last season.
According to our algorithm, Barnard’s data gives him an excellent chance of translating this lower-level form to being a strong county player.
Released by Derbyshire during the winter despite solid enough Second XI data, right-arm seamer Hemmings fits the prototype of a player unable to break into the first team at a county at a young age, who should improve as he gets towards his mid 20s.
As mentioned previously, this is a common dynamic when looking at the career pathway of ECB Premier League players, and Hemmings’ data for Longton over the last two season - prior to a move to Audley - gives him an excellent chance of proving Derbyshire wrong, having taken 43 wickets at a cost of below 12 runs per wicket in the last two seasons.
Despite the level of the Lincolnshire Premier League being lowly-regarded by my algorithm, Willerton’s data made it impossible to ignore the right-arm seam bowler - be it for Cleethorpes in the Yorkshire South Premier League, or Bracebridge Heath in Lincolnshire, taking in excess of 90 wickets across the last two seasons at ECB Premier League level.
In addition, Willerton has terrorised batsmen when playing for Lincolnshire in recent years, including bagging 18 wickets at just over 13 last season.
Strangely, Willerton was jettisoned by Worcestershire Second XI after bowling just two overs in a 50-over match in 2016, and several matches in the Second XI Championship, where he actually impressed, taking eight wickets at below 20.
Right-arm seam bowler Phagura featured for Warwickshire’s Second XI over recent years and performed reasonably well, taking wickets in the Second XI Trophy for them, as well as for the Unicorns. In addition, Phagura’s second XI T20 wickets came at around 25 runs per wicket, so it is a surprise Warwickshire didn’t persist with him with a view to further improvement.
Both for Kenilworth Wardens, and West Bromwich Dartmouth, Phagura has been a prolific wicket-taker, and also has had success playing for Staffordshire, so he’s done it for a number of teams and across all formats in recent years, and is capable with the bat as well.
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Posted by Jonathan Davidson on 08/06/2018 at 11:28
I've scored games at Minor Counties and MCCU level for many seasons and against half the Lads who you have highlighted.They are excellent players and nice lads as well! I don't understand some Coaches philsosophy of picking some players over others who are in this catagory.I do know that team balance is essential along with playing age restraints at County Level.However,surely the vast majority of Division 2 teams would have to look at these players stats and give them a chance.Teams can't go on stagnating,believing that their squads are match winners when clearly they're not.
Posted by Andrew Shields on 29/05/2018 at 14:38
This ignores one crucial factor that data can’t tease out: team fit. We have all played with hugely talented players who were absolute ****holes. Often a reason why players get to a county 2nd XI but no further. Not saying any of these guys are anything but lovely blokes though, good luck to them all.
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